Monday, November 19, 2012
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
Boulder County Economic Snapshot
Economic
Snapshot
A look at the
current real estate market; provided by RE/MAX ALLIANCE
June/2012
The term “global economy” has become
part of the daily jargon as it relates to the ups and downs of the world’s
various stock markets and the financial entities attempting to create some
semblance of order to the world’s economy. Uncertainty appears to be the norm
these days as Wall Street traders grapple with a market vacillating between
bears and bulls, impacted by the doings across the pond and along the Pacific
Rim.
Locally, the Boulder Valley real
estate market continues to show signs of stability as sales activity has
improved thus far this year when compared to the last few years. Through
May/2012, single family home sales throughout Boulder County are UP 25%
compared to through May/2011 (1157 vs. 923); attached unit sales are UP 23%
(422 vs. 343) for the same time periods; and the overall market is UP 24.72%.
The market is still down slightly over 30% when compared to 2005, the benchmark
year when sales activity peaked.
Through May/2012, the Absorption
Rate for Boulder County single family homes stands at 7.2 months (219
days). The Absorption Rate is the length of time it would take for the
market to sell the entire existing inventory, assuming no new listings came on
the market and the rate of sales activity remained the same. The Absorption
Rate at the end of 2011 stood at 5.2 months (156 days); 2010 was 6.3
months (189 days). The Absorption Rate characteristically
trends downward over the course of the year as sales activity increases during
the spring and summer months. Look for that to also happen this year.
Homes on the lower pricing end of
the market ($150,000 to $500,000) always have the lowest Absorption Rate, since
that is where the majority of listings and buyers can be found. Through
May/2012, the Absorption Rate for this price range stands at 5.2 months (159
days). Surprisingly, the price range showing the most improvement in May/2012
versus April/2012 in days on the market was $700,000 to $1,000,000. That’s a
good indication home buyers are moving-up the food chain into more expensive
properties. Homes priced over a million dollars still haven’t felt that push
yet.
Looking forward, it appears the Boulder
Valley market will continue on a similar plain. The available inventory
of resale homes will remain low. An interesting fact, in May/2012 the number of
sold properties were nearly identical to the number of new listings, which
means available inventory isn’t increasing. Home mortgage interest rates
continue to hover below the four percent mark for the traditional thirty-year
fixed rate loan. There are no indications the powers to be in Washington are
going to do anything soon to upset the financial apple cart.
New home construction by production
builders is reaching a point where “in-fill” lots are being built out, which
means development of approved parcels will be their next path. Earth movers
will once again be churning-up virgin land, and planning departments will dust
off the cobwebs and begin sitting down with developers.
That light at the end of the tunnel,
which for years was simply another train coming our way, now appears to be a
gift of sunshine for the Boulder Valley real estate market.
The market is still a few years away from mirroring 2005, but at least it is
moving in a positive direction.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Economic
Snapshot
A look at the
current real estate market; provided by RE/MAX ALLIANCE
April/2012
With the advent of spring, there
appears to be a ray of sunshine for the Boulder County
real estate market. Through March/2012 single family homes sales are UP approximately 11% year-to-date
versus 2011; attached unit sales are UP
approximately 7% year-to-date versus 2011; the overall market being UP approximately 10% year-to-date
versus 2011. Assuming the local real estate market keeps a similar pace over
the balance of the year, there will be approximately 4,000 single family homes
(73%) and attached units (27%) sold in 2012. This would be somewhat comparable
to sales activity for 2008 (4,270 sales), but still considerably below 2005
figures (5,795 sales) when activity peaked.
Below are some sold numbers for single-family
homes for various geographic areas throughout the Boulder
Valley. Information is courtesy of IRES (the Northern Colorado
MLS).
2011 Sales
2012 Sales
1st Quarter 1st
Quarter
Area Single Family Single
Family % Change
Boulder 92 138 +50%
Erie 46 50 +9%
Superior 15 19 +27%
Louisville 35 28 -20%
Lafayette 36 43 +19%
Longmont 140 172 +23%
Suburban
Plains 99 89 -10%
Suburban
Mountains 31 34 +10%
=== === ====
TOTAL 494 573 +16%
In the April/2012 issue of RISMedia’s
Real Estate Newsletter, they listed outside influences that may have an
impact on real estate.
1.
The Election:
Will economic conditions improve as the President seeks to remain in office or
will there be upsets with a change in leadership?
2.
The Job Market:
The overall employment picture is improving, but the pace and direction it
takes is critical to the housing market.
3.
The Weather:
Did the calm winter rob sales from the spring and summer and frontload stats
for 2012?
4.
The Banks:
Credit standards have strangled many would-be homebuyers. If and how much the
criteria loosens this year will have a direct impact on housing.
5.
The Investors:
Many feel investors will play a big role this year. Their impact on decreasing
excess inventory could provide an unanticipated boost to home values.
6.
The Renters:
A big benefactor of the housing decline, the rental market has been booming.
However, recent stats show that rising rents combined with low home prices has
now made owning a home more affordable than renting one.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Boulder County Economic Snapshot
Economic
Snapshot
A look at the
current real estate market; provided by RE/MAX ALLIANCE
March/2012
As
is characteristic of this time of year, the inventory level of available homes
starts to expand. For Boulder County, active listings are
up 18% through February/2012 compared to the end of 2011. Sales of single
family homes and attached units are up 4% for the first two months of this year
compared to the first two months of 2011.
After
four years of a declining real estate market (2006 to 2009) and the past three
years having reached a plateau in sales activity (2009 to 2011), there appears
to be a renewed buyer interest in the Boulder County real estate market.
This can be attributed to a variety of reasons.
·
Home
Values Have Stabilized: Through February/2011 the median sold price for a
single family home in Boulder County was $365,000 and an
attached unit was $198,202. Through February/2012 those values were $370,000
for a single family home and $195,000 for an attached unit.
·
Home
Mortgage Interest Rates: Who would have thought mortgage interest rates
would hold at historic lows for as long as they have. The traditional
thirty-year fixed rate loan continues to hover around 4%. Adjustable rate
mortgages (those dastardly fiends that caused many people to lose their homes)
can be had for fewer than 3% with the first five years fixed. Interest only loans (also a bane of the past)
are still available, but not as attractive as they once were.
·
Real
Estate Is A Bottom Up Business: When a real estate market begins to churn
in a positive direction it always starts at the bottom. Less expensive
properties fuel the fire. This activity creates the opportunity for the domino
effect to surface. Low end sellers buy more expensive homes causing a
chain of sales to occur. Lack of available inventory can hamper this cycle as
sellers wishing to move-up can’t find what they want.
·
New
Construction: In the movie Field
of Dreams, the voice in the cornfield whispers: “Build it and they will
come.” That is true of new construction. Activity begets activity. The sound of
boom boxes and hammers pounding is like a moth drawn to a light, they attract
buyers. Production builders have seen the light with new homes being
constructed in pocket areas across Boulder County this late winter/early
spring.
·
Short
Sales and Bank Foreclosures: These continue to play an active part of the
real estate market as banks and the Federal Government continue to work their
way through this process. When this mess is finally put to bed, we would hope
the financial institutions and the government have learned their lesson and we
won’t find ourselves treading down this path again – ever.
·
Unemployment
Rate: Jobs fuel the economy. The current unemployment rate for Colorado is
running around 7.9%. At the beginning of 2011 it was at 8.9%. When the Boulder
County real estate market peaked in 2005 the Colorado unemployment rate
stood at 5.2%.
There
are a lot of positives in the Boulder County real estate market as
we head into the spring. It continues to be a buyer’s market, especially in
homes priced above a million dollars, but we are gradually moving toward a more
balanced marketplace, which is good for both buyers and sellers.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Monday, January 30, 2012
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Friday, January 6, 2012
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