Friday, April 26, 2013
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Boulder Valley Real Estate Snaphot
Economic
Snapshot
A look at the
current real estate market; provided by RE/MAX ALLIANCE
April/2013
One
of the issues the area real estate market faced as the year began was available
inventory of homes for sale across the Boulder Valley. 2012 ended with 814
single family active listings in Boulder County. That was down 27%
from the end of 2011 (1121 active single family listings).
The decline in
inventory was driven by sales activity. When comparing 2012 to 2011, single
family home sales were up 24.44% (3258 vs. 2618) for Boulder County. Attached
unit sales were up 20.80% (1144 vs. 947) for the same time periods.
Collectively, those two market segments were up 23.47%.
Through March/2013
the Boulder
County real estate market continues to sustain itself. Single family
home sales are up 14.61% compared to through March/2012 (604 vs. 527). Attached
unit sales are up 20.41% for the same time periods (230 vs. 191).
Below are some
sold numbers for single-family homes for
various geographic areas throughout the Boulder Valley. Information is
courtesy of IRES (the Northern Colorado MLS).
2012 Sales
2013 Sales
1st Quarter 1st
Quarter
Area Single Family Single
Family % Change
Boulder 138 143 +3.62%
Erie 50 70 +40.0%
Superior 19 23 +21.05%
Louisville 28 30 +7.14%
Lafayette 43 51 +18.60%
Longmont 172 235 +36.62%
Suburban
Plains 89 96 +7.86%
Suburban
Mountains 34 42 +23.52%
=== === ====
TOTAL 573 690 +20.41%
This
is the scenario that currently exists across the Boulder Valley, Metro
Denver, and Northern Colorado – fewer listings and more sales. Combined with
low mortgage interest rates the result is a perfect storm, if you’re a seller.
Normally,
scarcity creates demand, which in turn adds value to whatever is in short
supply. Looking at the areas noted above and average sales value; here
is what has happened to the average sales value for single
family homes when comparing end-of-year 2012 to through March/2013:
Boulder (+2.62%): Louisville (+1.56%); Lafayette (+12.61%); Longmont (+9.66%);
Superior (+.96%); Erie (+9.50%); Suburban Plains (+5.45%); and Suburban
Mountains (+3.40%). Collectively, these market areas are +5.14%.
Look
for the Boulder Valley spring real estate market to continue to
flourish. Available inventory will creep-up, but will continue to be swept-up
by prospective buyers waiting in the wings. Mortgage interest rates have
trickled-up over the past few weeks, but there are no signs on the horizon they
will shift noticeably either up or down for the balance of 2013.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Sunday, February 10, 2013
Boulder Valley Real Estate Economic Snapshot
Economic
Snapshot
A look at the
current real estate market; provided by RE/MAX ALLIANCE
February/2013
The
Boulder
County real estate market continued its active pace in January/2013 as
single family homes and attached unit sales outpaced January/2012 sales. Single
family home sales were UP 20% (166 vs. 138). Attached unit sales were UP 29%
(62 vs. 48). The collective market was UP nearly 23%. Sales figures for
January/2013 approached January/2007 sales numbers.
The
inventory of available single family homes increased 5.77% at the close of
January/2013 compared to the end of 2012 (861 vs. 814). Inventory levels will
continue to grow as winter melds into spring and the real estate market gains
momentum. Available inventory will be the key to how active the Boulder
County real estate market is in 2013. 2012 ended the year with nearly
27% FEWER active single family homes on the market compared to the end of 2011
(814 vs. 1121). When you take 2010 into consideration, there were 40% fewer
single family homes available at the end of 2012 (814 vs. 1353). The past two
years have seen buyer activity increase swallowing-up available inventory.
Expect this pattern to continue throughout 2013.
On the
financing side, the Federal Reserve has indicated they are going to keep
lending rates at historic lows through the balance of 2013 and into 2014. The
Fed’s goal is to get the national economy stabilized and then growing at a
reasonable rate. National unemployment rates have dipped to slightly under 8%.
Colorado’s unemployment rate has pretty much mirrored the national rate for the
past five years.
When the Boulder County real
estate market was HOT back in 2004 through 2007, the Colorado unemployment rate
had dipped below 4%. The national rate dropped to around 4.5% at that time. In
its August/2012 economic forecast, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
estimated the unemployment rate would be 5.9% by 2017. Getting from there to
below 4% again would require a Herculean effort on the part of the local,
national and global economy.
But that’s the future. We have to
deal with the realities of today. Here are some thoughts to chew-on in looking
at the Boulder Valley real estate market.
1.
It’s a seller’s market, especially at the
entry-level. Single family homes in Boulder County priced from $150,000
(yes, there are still a few out there at that price level) to $600,000 had an
Absorption Rate of 114 days in January/2013. (That number will decline as the
year progresses.) In January/2012 the Absorption Rate for the same price range
was 236 days.
2.
If an entry-level property is priced
competitively and in reasonable condition, multiple offers are now the norm.
Short sale properties, especially, invite multiple offers.
3.
The upper end of the market (homes over one
million) is showing some resiliency. In January/2013 there were nine million
dollar plus homes sold in Boulder County. In January/2012 that
number was seven.
4.
As buyer demand increases, home values follow
suit. We’re seeing the trickle-up effect as mid-range and upper end homes are
experiencing a positive movement in values.
In the Boulder Valley, spring
and early summer are characteristically the busiest time of the year with home
closings peaking in the March through August period.
Saturday, January 5, 2013
2012 Boulder County Real Estate Update
Economic
Snapshot
A look at the
current real estate market; provided by RE/MAX ALLIANCE
January/2013
In
taking literary license with Charles Dickens’ opening line in A
Tale of Two Cities, the 2012 Boulder County real estate market wasn’t
the best of times or the worst of times, but it did experience a marked
improvement over the past several years.
Single family home
sales were UP 24.10% in 2012 when compared to 2011 (3,249 vs. 2,618). Attached
unit sales were UP 20.48% for the same time periods (1,141 vs. 947). The
collective market was UP 23.14% (4,390 vs. 3,565). This was the best
year since 2007 for Boulder County sales activity, but it was still down 24.25%
from 2005 when the market peaked (4,390 vs. 5,795).
The Absorption
Rate (the length of time it would take for the market to fully turn)
for single
family homes ended the year at 91 days for Boulder County. 2011
ended the year at 156 days; 2010 at 189 days. Homes sold twice as fast in 2012
than they did in 2010. This was spurred my low mortgage interest rates and
diminishing inventory.
For Boulder
County, the year ended with 814 active listings. This was down 27.39%
when compared to the end of 2011 (814 vs. 1,121) and down 39.84% when compared
to the end of 2012 (814 vs. 1,353).
Below is an overview of sales
activity for the past two years for single family homes in the various Boulder Valley areas,
courtesy of IRES – the Northern Colorado MLS.
2011 2012
% 2011 2012 %
Area Solds Solds Change Average Price Average Price Change
Boulder 614 786 +28.01% $664,423 $668,423 +0.60%
Louisville 201 241 +19.90% $412,121 $431,017 +4.58%
Lafayette 251 302 +20.31% $372,445 $385,179 +3.41%
Superior 109 157 +44.03% $423,885 $425,426 +0.36%
Longmont 831 995 +19.73% $244,825 $258,856 +5.73%
Sub.
Plains 411 537 +30.65% $552,552 $552,612 N/C
Sub.
Mtns. 253 296 +16.99% $396,421 $422,299 +6.52%
Broomfield 351 373 +6.26% $354,650 $357,449 +0.79%
=== === ======
======= ====== ======
Totals … 3021 3687 +22.04% $425,616 $440,742 +3.55%
2013
promises to be a year of continued change. Here are some thoughts relative to
what the Boulder County market may experience.
- Lack of available inventory will further foster a seller’s market, with both the resale market and new construction benefitting.
- Land sales, once a dormant part of the real estate landscape, will experience a rebirth as production and custom builders seek out new opportunities.
- Home mortgage interest rates should continue to hover below 4.0% for the traditional thirty-year fixed rate mortgage as the economic impacts of the decisions surrounding the fiscal cliff become more apparent.
- Rental rates will continue to increase as the availability of rental units shrinks.
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